KATHMANDU, June 23: Political observers have keenly been watching the developments, as the ongoing CPN-Maoist politburo meeting discusses agendas for the party´s central committee meeting scheduled for June 29.
The decision of the CPN-Maoist politburo meeting, which began on Friday, has a greater significance in that the decision would determine if the country´s politics is headed for a peaceful resolution or further conflict.
According to observers, CPN-Maoist is likely to decide to boycott polls, saying the party would not participate in the poll process under the “existing situation”. The party has long been expressing its disagreement over the political process that led to formation of the Khil Raj Regmi-led government.
The party has to either choose election or confrontation. But either one of the choices are fraught with peril for the party.
Observers say, the state would act tough on the CPN-Maoist if it chooses the path of struggle. “The state wants to finish off the CPN-Maoists and wants to invite confrontation in the name of election,” Kumar Shah, CC member, told Republica. The state would choose confrontation as it is always easier to subjugate a weaker force, a task it did not succeed before the party split. Moreover, the international community would also help the government in crushing the Maoists. In addition, the state would not hesitate to act tough as the current government is led by civil servants, who have no political obligations.
According to observers, the state and the foreign forces will try to incite confrontation between the UCPN (Maoist) and the CPN-Maoist. Immediately after the party split, attempts had been made to bring about confrontation between the two parties over the issue of party property. But the Maoist parties avoided it by keeping on hold the issue of property. So if the CPN-Maoist chooses struggle, the country will enter into a new phase of conflict.
“The party has only two options - either to launch struggle or be forced to resist confrontation by the state,” said a CC member. According to Maoist leaders, the state will mobilize the army in the name of election to confront us.
Political observers say it would neither be safe for the Maoists to participate in the election. If the party decided to participate in the election, they would not only have to face rival political parties but also international forces. Mainly their agenda of the “national sovereignty” will cost the party dearly in the election. However, CPN- Maoist´s participation in polls would be enough to give the UCPN (Maoist) a taste of defeat.
“Finally, the Maoists will face the fate of then Bamdev Gautam-led CPN-ML,” said a Maoist leader.
On the other hand, party cadres and voters would not sympathize with CPN-Maoist if it decides to participate in the polls. Voters would question the integrity of the party, saying if it were to choose the path of election why not as a unified party.
“Even if Dahal seeks for an alliance with CPN-Maoist or any such poll arrangement, India would not allow this to happen. Any poll alliance to be formed for polls would be so under the auspices of India,” said the CC member.
“If the formation of the Khila Raj Regmi-led government is anything to go by, the face of the CA to be elected through the November 19 polls would largely be determined by how the India wants to see it,” said another Maoist leader.
CPN-Maoist Chairman Mohan Baidya is writing a political document to be presented at the CC meeting. The ongoing politburo meeting will also offer suggestions to be incorporated in Baidya´s document.
Maoist leaders say that the political document would be “remarkable” in terms of the “review” and “synthesis” of the people´s war. So far, the reviews of the people´s war made by UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baidya have been contradictory. But the international communist parties have not recognized either of the reviews.
“It would be a decisive political document. The document would determine the fate and future existence of the party,” said Shah.