KATHMANDU, April 5: The gulf between Mohan Baidya-led CPN-Maoist alliance on one hand and the UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the United Democratic Madhesi Front on the other is likely to widen further as the former seeks positive signals on its preconditions and these appear unacceptable to the later. The Dahal and Baidya alliances sticking to their positions not only amplifies the polarization between the two Maoist-led alliances as between pro-election and anti-election, there is also seen the possibility of confrontation.
"We are not opposed to talks. But we neither got a formal invitation nor any indication our preconditions would be addressed. What would be the point of sitting for talks now," said Baidya, mentioning the reasons of the boycotting of talks Friday by his alliance. The preconditions of the Baidya alliance are first, scrap the March 14 agreement of the parties [UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Unified Democratic Madhesi Front]; and secondly, a meeting should be called of all the parties to select a government from among the political parties. And, the Baidya led alliance also proposes talks only with the president, saying the government is unconstitutional and the four parties have no constitutional right to hold talks.
But there is no chance of any change in the stance of the Dahal-led alliance. The main reason is the Dahal alliance would first have to dismiss the sitting CJ Khil Raj Regmi-led election government. The possibility of talks is very slim.
Baidya´s alliance has announced a general strike on Sunday. Baidya said that his alliance will bring programs in accordance with the further moves of the Dahal led alliance as well as the government.
Interestingly, the Dahal led alliance that signed the agreement to hold the election is itself seen not too keen on elections. Dahal led Maoists have already launched a month long program aiming to prepare the ground for struggle. Dahal has ordered his cadres to be ready for struggle, indicating there is no likelihood of elections.
Similarly, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML are also not keen on elections. The Dahal led Maoists, NC and UML are speaking of elections just for public consumption. the proof is that no party is preparing for elections in practical terms.
If election held, what would happen
The meaning of elections for the CA is to address the spirit of the Maoist people´s war, the Madhes movement and the ethnic movement. The conflict occured as the constitituon of 1990 had not addressed what these developments brought to the fore. Without participation of those forces the conflict will not be resolved.
The upcoming constitution should address--one, the 10-year long Maoist people´s war; two, the spirit of ethic movements like Tharuhat; three, the spirit of the Madhes and other regional movements. According to political pundits, Baidya led Maoists represent the sprit of the people´s war although it was only a faction of the forces behind that war. Similarly, the Upendra Yadav led Madhesi People´s Right Forum represents the Madhes movement although his party has split into many parties. Thirdly, ethic movements like Tharuhat also remain on the outside.
These all forces were excluded in the negotiations process in the past. They are left in the streets. The idea of making them participate in the talks, without any mention of their demands, is just to get them to endorse the four parties´ agreement.
"We would not sit at the talks table just to endorse the four parties´ agreement and without finding any solution," added Baidya.
Blurred scene of Nepali politics
According to political analyst Mumaram Khanal, the polarization of the political parties would only widen. He added that the parties have already failed and they are going to become weaker, losing any capacity for decision making. According to him, the formation of the sitting CJ-led government is the result of the failure of the political parties.
The Baidya led alliance will continue its struggle programs for its own existence. But it has also no clear plan how to move forward with its people´s revolt or people´s war although the party has already endorsed its political line of launching a people´s revolt on the foundation of a people´s war.
It has no clear program how to launch the revolt.
The political parties also have no program if the elections fail. They are giving speeches about holding elections, but without any preparations for elections.
It scenario of Nepali politics is unclear. It is very difficult to say what the future will be.
"How can we predict the future face of Nepali politics while the political parties themselves are not clear and those who have designed these things are not forthcoming till now," added Khanal. "If election were held it would only be in the interest of foreigners, as the master plan was that of foreigners."